FiveThirtyEight probability model rates chances of Newcastle qualifying for Champions League (and winning PL…)

Interesting overview of Newcastle United and the Premier League in general for the season and especially when it comes to the Champions League places.

The super computer model predictions are based on the FiveThirtyEight revision to the Soccer Power Index, which is a rating mechanism for football teams which takes account of over half a million matches, and is based on Opta‘s play-by-play data.

They have analysed all the Premier League clubs and made certain updated predictions for the 2022/23 Premier League season, that is currently in a break for the Qatar World Cup.

Their computer model rates the percentage probability chances of success for Newcastle United and the other Premier League clubs.

Their prediction system gives Newcastle United now a 42% chance of finishing top four and qualifying for the Champions League.

The odds on the other main contenders finishing top four are as follow:

96% Man City, 92% Arsenal, 54% Liverpool, 53% Man Utd, 37% Tottenham, 17% Chelsea, 14% Brighton and 1% Crystal Palace.

As for actually winning the title…

53% Man City, 36% Arsenal, 3% Liverpool, 2% Newcastle United, 2% Man U, 2% Tottenham, less than 1% Chelsea.

As for at the other end of the table, when it comes to relegation, the computer model now makes NUFC less than a 1% chance of going down.

Regarding the relegation picture overall, the computer model has Nottingham Forest most likely (63%) to be relegated, with then Wolves (56%), Bournemouth (45%), Everton (41%), Southampton (33%), Leeds (17%), Fulham (12%), West Ham (10%), Leicester (7%), Brentford (5%), Villa (5%), Crystal Palace (5%) and Brighton (less than 1%).

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